Playground
Interactive companions to selected Concepts and Field Notes — not a substitute for them. Adjust the sliders, pressure-test the mental model, then follow the link back to the full explanation.
Statistics
Distribution Shape Explorer
Read the concept →Switch between symmetric, skewed, and bimodal data. Slide the bin count and watch shape emerge — or vanish — while mean and median lines reveal the skew.
Symmetric distribution: mean and median agree, and either is a fair summary.
Mean vs. Median Puller
Read the concept →Drag the dots along a number line. Pull one far to the right and watch the mean chase it while the median barely moves.
Drag the right-side dot far out. Watch which line chases it.
Variance Explorer
Read the concept →Adjust the spread of a distribution and add outliers. Watch how mean, variance, and standard deviation respond in real time.
Confidence Interval Coverage
Read the concept →Draw repeated samples and see how often the 95% confidence interval actually captures the true mean — and what happens when it misses.
Regression Fit & Residuals
Read the concept →Control slope, noise, and sample size to see how a line fits data and where residuals come from.
Sample Means Converge to a Bell Curve
Read the concept →Pick a source distribution — uniform, skewed, or bimodal. Collect sample means and watch them converge to a bell curve, regardless of what the source looks like.
Null Distribution Explorer
Read the concept →Drop an observed z-statistic and watch the tail shade. Then switch to p-curve mode and run 1000 null experiments — the p-values scatter uniformly, with 5% below 0.05 by chance alone.
Uncommon under the null, but happens about 1 in 22 experiments by chance.
Effect Size Overlap
Read the concept →Slide Cohen's d from 0 to 2 and watch two distributions pull apart. The shaded overlap shrinks while the chance a treated individual beats an untreated one climbs from 50% to 92%.
Cohen's 'medium' (d ≈ 0.5). ~64% chance treated beats untreated — the curves visibly pull apart.
√n Shrinkage
Read the concept →Slide the sample size on a log scale from 10 to 10,000. Watch the margin of error shrink as 1/√n — then flip to mode B and watch the same tiny effect become 'highly significant' on n alone.
At n=10, the margin is enormous — your estimate barely constrains anything.
Chartist Fallacy
Read the concept →Three financial charts. Pick the one with a real upward trend — then reveal that all three are zero-drift random walks. Dial drift up to feel where 'real' starts.
Three financial charts. Which one shows a real upward trend?
Trend or Noise
Read the concept →Two panels. One holds a hidden upward trend; one is pure noise. Identify the trend across rounds — at small n, your accuracy will hover around 50%.
Two panels. One holds a hidden upward trend; one is pure noise. Identify the trend.
Multiple Testing on Pure Noise
Read the concept →Run K significance tests on pure noise, then watch Bonferroni and Benjamini-Hochberg sweep the false positives away. At K=20 with no correction, expect about one 'hit' — even though nothing is real.
Test K=20 colors at α=0.05 — about 1.0 'hit' expected from pure noise.
Probability
False Positives Under Low Prevalence
Read the concept →Adjust test accuracy and disease prevalence. See how many of the positive results are actually false alarms — and why rare conditions are hard to screen for.
Posterior Probability by Scenario
Read the concept →See why a test that flags 95% of true cases can still be wrong most of the time when the condition is rare — base rate and false-positive rate decide the answer. Switch between disease testing, spam filtering, and fraud detection.
A disease affects 1% of people. The test correctly identifies 95% who have it, but also flags 10% of healthy people.
- 950 test positive and have the condition
- 9,900 test positive but do not
Monty Hall: Should You Switch?
Read the concept →Choose a door. The host reveals a goat. Should you switch? Run a thousand trials and let the numbers settle the argument.
Pick a door to start.
Causal Reasoning
When a Hidden Variable Drives Both
Read the concept →Ice cream sales track drownings perfectly — until you recolor by season and the link vanishes. The DAG below names what you just saw: a third variable driving both.
More ice cream, more drownings — strong correlation. Sounds causal.
Correlation Failure Modes
Read the concept →Four real correlations, each broken by a different mechanism. Click through and watch the taxonomy emerge: confounder, reverse causation, chance, selection bias.
Ice cream sales track drownings tightly — but does ice cream cause drowning?
ML Intuition
Overfitting Explorer
Read the concept →Fit polynomials of increasing degree to noisy data. Watch the training error fall while the test error climbs — and see exactly where the model starts memorizing instead of learning.
Data Thinking
Survivorship Bias — Wald's Planes
Read the concept →See the WWII bomber damage pattern that Abraham Wald used to prove we were reinforcing the wrong parts of the plane.
Damage recorded on returning bombers. Engineers wanted to reinforce the areas with the most holes.
How Peeking Inflates False Positives
Read the field note →Simulate 5,000 A/B tests under no real effect. Adjust how often you peek at the dashboard and watch the false positive rate climb from 5% to over 25%.
5,000 simulated A/B tests, no real effect — adjust how often you peek
Average vs. typical user lifetime
Read the field note →Slide the power-user fraction from 0 to 30% and watch the mean lifetime climb 20× beyond the median. The 'average user' is the gap between these two numbers.
15% power users → mean lives ~22× longer than the median. The "average user" is the gap.